.
 Vyom World.com  . Let's Touch the Sky Together!  
.
. . . . . . .
 Home
VyomWorld.com Home
Free Magazines!
VyomLinks.com Home
JobsAssist.com Home
Vyom Network
Contact Us
 Jobs & Careers
Resume Submitter
Placement Papers
IT Companies Directory
Computer Jobs
Interview Questions
Online Exams
Vyom Career eMag.
 Fun
Screensavers New!
Send FREE SMS!
SMS Jokes
 Source Codes Library
Source Codes Home
ASP Source Codes
C Source Codes
C++ Source Codes
COBOL Source Codes
Java Source Codes
Pascal Source Codes
Submit Source Codes
 GATE
GATE an Overview
GATE Preparation
Study Materal
 GRE
GRE an Overview
GRE Questions
GRE Preparation
GRE Universities
 TOEFL Preparation
TOEFL Resources
 GMAT Preparation
GMAT Resources
 MBA Preparation
MBA Resources
 Networking Concepts
Networking Concepts
 Testing Preparation
Testing Resources
 Webmasters
Free Traffic Builder
Webmaster Articles
Web Hosting
 Tutorials
Hardware Tutorial
1500 Free eBooks New!
 FREE Publications
Vyom Career eMag.
 
.
Get 9,000+ Interview Questions & Answers in an eBook.


  • 9,000+ Interview Questions
  • All Questions Answered
  • 5 FREE Bonuses
  • Free Upgrades

    Get it now!


    Post your Resume to 5800+ Companies

    Reliable Web Hosting

  •  
     
     
    Get 9,000+ Interview Questions with Answers in an eBook


     Home >> GMAT >> Essays >> Essay - 80


    Advertisements
    Advertisements


    The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper. “Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be.” Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

       In this editorial the author asserts that opinion polls are little better than random guesses to predicting outcomes of presidential elections. The author’s basis for this assertion is that opinion polls measure only the preferences of voters at the time of the poll and that many voters change their preferences several time before voting—some remaining undecided until the moment they cast their vote. The author’s reasoning is unconvincing in two critical respects.

    First of all the predictions based on random guessing are such that the greater the number of candidates, the less likely the prediction will be correct. The reason for this is obvious: random guessing requires that no outside information be allowed to influence the guess. Predictions based on opinion polls, on the other hand, will differ considerably from those based on random guesses simply because outside information will influence the result. For example, in a four-person race, random guessing would yield the correct prediction 25 percent of the time, whereas the percentage of correct predictions based on opinion polls would be much higher. The reason for this disparity is simple. Opinion polls enable us to narrow the choices. That is, opinion polls serve to reduce the number of viable candidates in the voter’s mind and thereby increase the likelihood that the prediction based on them will be correct.

    In addition, while it is true that many voters change their minds several times before voting, and that some remain undecided until entering the voting booth, this is not true of everyone. Moreover, people who do change their minds frequently or wait until the last moment to decide have typically narrowed their choice to a few candidates.

    In conclusion, the author is mistaken in believing that random guessing would be as reliable as opinion polls in predicting the outcomes of presidential elections.


     



     


    .

    Recently Updated: New Placement Papers added.
    Vyom Network : Web Hosting | Dedicated Server | Free SMS, GRE, GMAT, MBA | Online Exams | Freshers Jobs | Software Downloads | Programming & Source Codes | GRE Preparation | Jobs, Discussions | Software Listing | Free eBooks | Free eBooks | Free Business Info | Interview Questions | Free Tutorials | International Business Information | IAS Preparation | Jokes, Songs, Fun | Free Classifieds | Free Recipes | FAQs | Free Downloads | Bangalore Info | Tech Solutions | Project Outsourcing, Web Hosting | GATE Preparation | MBA Preparation | SAP Info | Excellent Mobiles | Software Testing | Interview Questions | Freshers Jobs | Server Insiders | File Extension Directory

    Copyright ©2003-2017 Vyom Technosoft Pvt. Ltd., All Rights Reserved. Read our Privacy Policy